Predicting the future from 2022

Saturday January 1, 2022

For the third year in a row (2020, 2021) I consider what might happen. I continue to mostly imagine current trends continue, and throw in some extra stuff for fun.

By 2023 (1 year from now)

• Omicron is the last major Covid variant, but supply chain and workforce issues continue to be hard all year.
• Democrats become minorities in the House and Senate in 2022 US elections.
• Queen Elizabeth is dead. (Recommended by Tonia.)
• Inflation carries on around 5%.
• S&P 500 closes above 5,000.

By 2027 (5 years from now)

• Democratic candidate wins presidency in 2024 US election.
• Inflation around 2%.
• Global population exceeds 8 billion for the first time in 2023 (predicted by the UN).
• Total population between 8,221,264 and 8,333,078 (low/med predicted by the UN).
• S&P 500 closes above 7,000.

By 2032 (10 years from now)

• Texas has non-zero state income tax and plenty of climate and infrastructure things to spend on.
• Zendaya wins an Oscar.
• At least one European nation has something identifiable as UBI.
• Total population between 8,445,932 and 8,687,228 (low/med predicted by the UN).
• S&P 500 closes above 9,000.

By 2042 (20 years from now)

• The US effectively has UBI, but it isn't called that. Maybe a patchwork of policies.
• At least one international advertising campaign intended to encourage immigration to the US by ameliorating the reputation of unemployed Americans.
• Total population between 8,769,695 and 9,315,508 (low/med predicted by the UN).
• S&P 500 closes above 15,000.

Trends

• I think global population growth will be slightly slower than the medium variant predicted by the UN. Covid might contribute a little, but I think this is mostly from efforts like Bill Gates's, possibly Belt and Road, and general technology and modernization.
• Climate change continues. More fires, more floods, more droughts, more storms. Climate action continues to be nominal.
• It keeps being easy/easier to fake things.
  • Lots of cheap/low-quality stuff.
  • The value of direct human relationships/trust stays very high/grows. Elite college education keeps getting more valuable.
• Inequality continues to grow.
  • Extreme poverty continues to decline; the bottom of the range is higher than previously. In some places, there may be UBI eventually.
  • But the gap between the bottom of the range and the top grows.
• More legalization of drugs.
• There will continue to be more real problems with not having enough people to work than there are with having too many people put out of work by technology.

Wilder speculations

• “The middle class is precarious.” To what extent is downward mobility present? acceptable? desirable? To what extent is/should mobility be like a ratchet: only upward? The idle rich are not generally admired as virtuous, I think, but people also really dislike it when their children are worse off than they are/were (or if they're those children). What will be the long-term trend? What level of wealth should anyone have to “earn”? (Inspired by Emilie.)
• Infant (and child) mortality is dramatically down and will likely continue to get lower. The first-order effect is obviously good. What are the second-order effects? Does the decrease in infant mortality contribute to any population health effects?

Reviewing past predictions

I was a little crazy in 2021. Depending on the level of generosity in interpretation, I was somewhere from 1/4 to 4/4 on one-year predictions. None of my longer-term predictions have materialized. Still no aliens.

From 2020: Hong Kong seems to be pretty well controlled by the mainland now.